Research
Working Papers
Abstract
This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border “crypto vehicle” transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find that cryptocurrency outflows from the US increased to middle- and high-income countries by 17% and 16%, respectively, in response to the stimulus. This provides the first evidence of fiscal spillovers operating through informal remittance channels.
- Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Science in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis with Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, and Jared Rubin
Abstract
Using textual analysis of 173,031 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture evolved to manifest a heightened belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the language of science and religion beginning in the 17th century. Second, scientific volumes became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, industrial works, especially those at the science-political economy nexus, were more progress-oriented beginning in the 17th century. It was therefore the more pragmatic, industrial works which reflected the cultural values cited as important for Britain’s takeoff.
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States on workplace safety outcomes. I combine data on workplace injuries in the US with FDI flows by industry. Using panel regressions, I find evidence of two competing effects of FDI: one that increases competition in an industry, leading to worse workplace safety outcomes, and one that promotes positive spillovers between foreign-owned and domestic firms, improving workplace safety outcomes. I do not find any evidence that the effect of FDI on workplace safety depends on the source of FDI.